Behind the Bark
Most owners guess on ads and hope it works out.
Don’t.
Do quick napkin math, set the highest price you can pay per click without losing money, then let the ads run inside that line.
Tonight’s issue shows you how to get those numbers fast.
Limb of the Week
Know Your "No-Lose" Numbers Before You Spend a Dime
Most tree service owners approach Google Ads backwards.
They pick a budget ($1,000/month sounds reasonable), set some bids ($5 per click seems safe), and cross their fingers.
Then they wonder why they're either getting zero leads or burning through cash with nothing to show for it.
Here's a better way: Calculate your maximum allowable cost per customer beforehand.
The math is simpler than rigging a complex removal:
Start with your average job value - Let's say $1,450 for a typical removal
Factor in repeat business - Average customer hires you 1.4 more times over their lifetime
Calculate lifetime value - $1,450 × 2.4 total jobs = $3,480 per customer
Subtract your costs - Crew wages, fuel, dump fees, taxes (let's say $1,950 total)
Your profit per customer - $3,480 - $1,950 = $1,530
That $1,530 is your breakeven point. You can spend up to that amount to acquire one customer and still break even.
Want to keep a 20% profit margin? Your max spend drops to $1,224 per customer.
Now work backwards through your funnel:
If 30% of leads become customers, you can spend up to $367 per lead ($1,224 ÷ 0.30)
If 12% of clicks become leads, you can spend up to $44 per click ($367 ÷ 0.12)
The result?
You can safely bid up to $44 per click and still maintain a 20% profit margin on every Google Ads customer.
No guessing or crossing fingers.
Cold cash in the bank.
Sawdust
Kickback
Stop Setting Budgets Based on "What You Can Afford"
If we had a dime every time we heard a tree service owner say, "We can afford about $500/month for Google Ads."
We’d be millionaires because…
That's not how growing, highly profitable businesses think.
You don't set ad budgets based on what's left over after expenses. You set them based on how much profit each customer generates and how many customers you want to acquire.
If you know each customer is worth $1,530 in profit and you want 10 new customers per month, you should be willing to spend up to $15,300 to get them.
But more often what happens is…
You set a $500 budget, maybe get 2-3 customers, and convince yourself "Google Ads don't work for tree services."
Meanwhile, your competitor who understands the math is spending $8,000/month and acquiring 20 customers because they know exactly how much each customer is worth.
They're not spending more because they're reckless. They're spending more because they know their numbers, even if someone woke them up in the middle of the night and asked.
The limiting factor isn't your marketing budget, but your understanding of your unit economics.
Figure out your numbers.
Then let Google, FB, or your platform of choice deliver as many profitable customers as possible.
Stop thinking like a small business owner worried about monthly expenses. And start thinking like a business owner focused on customer lifetime value and profit margins.
Want us to look at your marketing and show you how to get an extra 3-5 jobs per week? Book a $100 consult. Refundable if it's not worth 10x that. All you have to do is ask.
Written by Jacob Hastings
Head of Growth & Client Strategy at Growth Ring Media
