You're looking at a new territory. Maybe it's the next county over. Maybe it's a suburb 40 minutes away where you keep getting calls you can't service profitably. Maybe your best climber just moved there and you're thinking about following the talent.

Most owners go one of two routes. They jump in blind because "we got a big job out there." Or they overthink it for months until the window closes.

There's a faster way to get a clear answer. Takes about 10 minutes. Costs nothing.

Pull up Google Maps on your phone or computer. Search "tree service" in the city you're considering. Look at the three businesses that show up in the Map Pack at the top of the results.

Now click on the third result. Not the first. The third.

Count their total reviews. Then check the dates on the last 20 reviews to figure out how many they're averaging per month.

That's all you need.

If the #3 result has under 100 reviews, that market has no established player with real systems. A tree service with consistent operations and a basic review process can own that market in 12 months or less.

If they're sitting at 300 to 500 reviews, it's competitive but winnable. Someone's been working that area, but they haven't locked it down. You'll need to be deliberate.

If they're over 800 reviews, you're looking at an entrenched operation. They've either been there 15 years or they run a review machine you'll struggle to match. Look at the surrounding suburbs instead.

But total reviews only tell you history. Velocity tells you what's happening right now.

If the top players are adding 5 to 8 reviews per month, you can outpace them. That's a manual operation. Someone asks for reviews when they remember. You can systematize past that in 90 days.

If they're adding 25 or more reviews per month, they have real systems in place. Automated follow-ups, probably an office person whose job includes reputation management. You're not competing against a guy in a truck. You're going up against a business.

Think about it this way: you wouldn't bid a $50K removal without walking the property first. So why would you commit a crew, a truck, and six months of payroll to a new territory without spending 10 minutes checking who's already there?

Here's the question worth sitting with: Do you actually know the competitive landscape in the territory you've been thinking about, or have you just been going off gut feel?

*Also, hat tip to Noah Igler on X who we learned this idea from.

Here's the full reconnaissance process, broken into three steps.

Step 1: Google Map Pack Analysis (3 minutes)

Search "tree service [city name]" and open the #3 result. Count total reviews. Calculate monthly velocity by looking at the last 20 reviews and dividing by the number of months they span. Repeat for #1 and #2 if you want the complete picture.

Step 2: Pricing Signal Check (4 minutes)

Call the #1 and #3 result from a personal phone number, posing as a homeowner. Ask for a ballpark on a standard removal. Something like a 24-inch oak in an open backyard with no hazards. If they won't give you a range, that tells you about their sales process. If their pricing is 40% higher than your market, that tells you about the opportunity.

Step 3: Response Time Test (3 minutes)

Submit a contact form or text inquiry to the top three results. Track how fast they respond. If nobody gets back to you within 24 hours, that market is asleep at the wheel.

After 10 minutes, you know four things about that territory:

That's more intelligence than most tree services gather before buying a $75K truck and assigning it to a new territory.

Ask yourself: When's the last time you made an expansion decision based on data instead of a hunch? And if the data had told you "don't go there," would you have listened?

Here's what bothers me about how most tree services handle expansion.

They go where the work found them, not where the opportunity actually is.

One commercial job in a new city, and suddenly they're running a crew out there three days a week. Six months later, they're barely breaking even because the territory is saturated with guys who've been there for a decade.

Meanwhile, 20 minutes down the road, there's a market with half the competition and twice the demand. But nobody checked.

The owners running $5M, $7M, $10M operations treat every new territory like a business decision with real numbers behind it. They don't hope a market works out. They know before they commit.

When's the last time you did recon on a territory before sending resources there? If the answer is "never," you're not alone. But now you don't have an excuse.

If you've been eyeing a new territory (or wondering whether your current marketing setup is even pulling its weight), we'll take a hard look at the numbers with you.

For $100, you get a 30-minute call where we pull competitive data on any territory you're considering, review what's working and what's leaking in your current marketing, and give you a straight answer on where to focus next.

We work with tree services in the $1M to $10M range. We manage over $1.5 million a month in ad spend across home services. And we'll tell you the truth even if the truth is "you don't need us right now."

If that sounds useful, reply to this email with "expansion" as the subject line, and we will get you scheduled.

Until next Saturday, keep the drop zone clear and the margins fat.

-Jacob