The Tree Service Estimating Problem Nobody Talks About

Do your estimates have a mood problem?

Picture this for a second. You walk a property Tuesday morning. 60-foot oak, moderate access, needs to come down and get hauled. You run the numbers. Say you land on $2,800.

Now picture walking that same property Thursday afternoon. Same tree. Same access. Same everything. But you've already done six jobs this week. You're tired. The homeowner is chatty. You want to get home.

Would you quote the same number? Would it come in lower? Would it come in higher?
If you're being honest, there's probably a gap. Maybe $200. Maybe $900. Who knows?

And if that gap exists, where does it usually go? Up or down?

Most owners I've talked to say down. When they're tired, they round down to make the math easier. When they're rushed, they skip an add-on. When the homeowner is friendly, they shave a little because it feels right in the moment.

Maybe that's you. Maybe it isn't. But if any of it sounds familiar, here's where it gets uncomfortable.

Do that twice a week across a season. Even at $300-$500 per gap, you could be looking at $30,000- $50,000 a year quietly disappearing. Interestingly enough, once some owners actually track it, they find the number is closer to $90,000!

Not lost to a competitor. Not lost to a bad market. Lost to the difference between how you price at 8 am versus how you price at 5 pm.

Worth thinking about, at least.

There's a concept called "locked-rate pricing." Almost nobody in tree work uses it.

You probably have rates somewhere. In your head. On a spreadsheet. Maybe in a notebook in the truck.

And those rates might be solid. That's not the question.

The question is: do you apply them the same way every time?

When you're doing math in your head while a homeowner watches from the porch, do the numbers come out the same as when you're at your desk? When you've already run four estimates that day, do you still remember every add-on? When the customer seems like a nice person, do you ever round in their favor without really thinking about it?

If the answer to any of those is "yeah, sometimes," you're not doing anything wrong. You're just doing what every human does under fatigue and social pressure. The problem isn't discipline. It's that memory-based estimating asks you to be perfect every single time.

Locked-rate pricing means one thing: your rates get set once, when your head is clear, and they hold steady no matter what's happening around you when you run the estimate.

I'm not going to lay out the whole setup here. But I will say it doesn't involve hiring anyone, it doesn't mean learning some complicated platform, and it costs less than a tank of diesel.

If you want to know what it is and how it works, respond to the poll below, and I'll send you the full breakdown.

One number worth chewing on: If you're underpricing by just $250 on two jobs a week, that's $26,000 across a year. Not because your rates are bad. Because they might not be landing the same way every time.

A question for your foreman: "What jobs did we do last month where you thought we left money on the table?" He watches the work happen. He might have a perspective you don't.

This might sting a little, so take it or leave it.

"Gut feel" on estimates gets a lot of credit in this industry. And maybe your gut is great. 15, 20, 25 years of experience counts for something real.

But does experience make you immune to being tired? Does it keep you from rounding down when you want to wrap up the day? Does it help when you're running numbers in your head while someone stands three feet away asking about your insurance?

Maybe it does. I don't know your operation.

But I'd ask this: are you pricing based on the job, or could your day be bending the number without you even noticing?

If that question doesn't land, ignore it. If it does, sit with it for a minute.

Most owners will read this, think "huh, maybe," and keep estimating the same way tomorrow. That's fine.

But for those who are curious about a tool that locks your rates, takes your on-site notes, and turns them into a proposal you can email your client…

Respond to the poll above if you want to see how it works. I'll send you everything.

Talk soon,

-Jacob Hastings

The Backcut