This one's a day late. America turned 250 yesterday, and we figured you had better things to do than read about search algorithms. Now, back to business.

Your Google ranking probably isn't worth what it was 12 months ago.

That's not a scare tactic. BrightEdge data shows they now appear on nearly half of tracked queries, which means about 52% of searches still trigger no AI Overview at all. In 2025, that number was 6%. That's more than a 7x jump in a single year.

At the same time, Pew Research Center tracked 68,879 real Google searches across 900 US adults. When Google's AI Overview box appeared at the top of results, the organic click rate dropped from 15% to 8%. Only 1% of users clicked the links inside the AI summary itself.

So what's quietly happening: a growing chunk of your potential customers are either asking ChatGPT "who's a good tree service near me" or they're seeing Google's AI-generated answer and never scrolling down to your listing.

Now, there's a piece of good news buried in the data. Short queries like "tree removal near me" (2 to 3 words) only trigger an AI Overview about 8% of the time, per Pew. Longer, more detailed queries (10+ words) trigger them 53% of the time. So the classic local search behavior hasn't been totally upended yet.

But the trend line is moving in one direction. And SOCi found that half of the businesses winning in traditional Google local search aren't appearing in AI recommendations at all. The two channels have split apart.

The question worth asking: if a homeowner types your service into ChatGPT right now, do you show up? Or does your competitor?

Your online presence now has two jobs.

Job 1 is the one you know: rank in Google's traditional results. That still matters, especially for short local queries.

Job 2 is newer: be the kind of business that AI tools cite when someone asks for a recommendation.

We don't know every detail of how AI decides who to recommend. But based on what's visible, a few things are probably driving it.

When was the last time you actually read your own Google reviews to see what words customers use to describe your work?

Those words are probably what AI tools are pulling from. If your reviews are vague, the AI has nothing specific to grab onto.

AI Overviews are growing fast, but they're not everywhere. BrightEdge data shows they now appear on roughly 50% of tracked queries, but about 52% of queries still trigger no AI Overview at all. Traditional SEO isn't dead. It's just not the whole game anymore.

The abandonment number that matters: Pew found a 26% browsing abandonment rate when AI Overviews appear, compared to 16% without. That means roughly 1 in 4 searchers reads the AI answer and leaves. They never click anything. That's a lead you never had a chance to win.

If you're paying someone for SEO, ask them one thing this week: "What's your plan for getting us cited in AI results?" If they don't have a clear answer, that's information worth having.

Before you ask anyone what their plan is, run your own numbers. We built HawkReports to show you exactly where you stand in AI search results for your business.

Free for now, and takes only 10 minutes: https://hawkreports.com/tree-service/ai-visibility/

I'll tell you what bugs me about this whole AI search shift.

Most tree service owners are going to hear "AI is changing search" and do one of two things: panic or ignore it. Both responses are probably wrong.

The boring middle ground is closer to the truth. Your short local searches ("tree trimming [city]") are mostly safe for now. Only 8% of those short queries trigger an AI Overview. But the longer, more detailed searches that often come from higher-intent buyers with bigger jobs are increasingly getting answered before the customer ever sees your website.

And the part that should actually get your attention: when was the last time you Googled yourself from a customer's perspective? Not from your office computer that's logged into everything. From a clean browser, on your phone, like a homeowner who just noticed a cracked limb hanging over their roof would.

You don't need to overhaul your whole marketing plan tomorrow. But the owners who start paying attention to this now will probably have a 12 to 18 month head start on everyone who waits until it's obvious.

If you tried the ChatGPT search and want to share what came up (good or bad), just reply.

That's it for this one.

- Jacob Hastings

The Backcut